There are smart decisions and wise decisions. One form of wisdom is to know when to let luck disrupt your plans (and when not to). Getting a high ROL (return on luck) requires a new mental muscle, beginning first with a heightened awareness to recognize when a luck event happens. Use the three tests we lay out in the book:
1) Did the event happen largely or entirely independent of your own actions?
2) Does it have a potentially significant consequence (good or bad)?
3) Did some aspect of the event happen unexpectedly?
If yes, then ask: what—if anything—should we do to get a high return on this luck event? This applies equally to good luck events and bad luck events.
One very important point about luck: it is asymmetric as a potential cause of success or failure. Good luck cannot cause a great company, but huge strikes of bad luck can terminate a company. That’s why productive paranoia that we write about in the book is so important: always preparing to endure a sequence of bad luck events that will someday hit, being able to absorb them and stay in game long enough to turn the tide in your favor…
…says Jim Collins and Morten Hansen, in their interview with The Keen Thinker. There are a number of other fabulous interviews, and book reviews, to be digested at the same place. Go to The Keen Thinker for more…